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Initially, the former US president appeared to take a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer should Putin carried on hindering truce talks, the former president ultimately imposed major restrictions on Russia's primary energy firms, these major energy companies. This decision significantly hindered Putin's capability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his latest detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or European participation, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Military Action

This initiative would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal in reality undermine that very sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business experience, the former president seems to treat the war as a basic land disagreement, implying handing Russia a part of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible governance that his deepening autocracy withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to seize in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that are a essential obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, providing Putin a open route to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no similar limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as radicals, the plan declares: "Every extremist doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no obligation that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached similar agreements in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of seized land in the Donbas to the government – why should we have confidence in Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "decisive coordinated military response" in case Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing forces on the nation's land, thus preventing the security presence, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

World Reaction

An additional side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But unlike a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not