Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”