Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
