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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still