Daily Murders in the nation Fall Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The typical figure of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh official data. Nevertheless, security experts have advised that homicide data might not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President began the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had over these months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, noting that the previous month the least number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was also problematic because it may hide days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders spikes of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas said.