A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
