‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have depleted with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being allocated for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The real vulnerability is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.